The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to secure 365 out of the 543 contested seats.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is all set to secure a third consecutive term in the 2024 Lok Sabha election, albeit with a significant gap from its ambitious “abki baar, 400 paar” target, as per NDTV”s poll of opinion polls.
Projections suggest that the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to secure 365 out of the 543 contested seats, while the Congress-led INDIA alliance could secure 122 seats, leaving the remaining 56 seats to parties unaffiliated with either camp.
While the victory of the NDA, spearheaded by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is widely anticipated, the numbers indicate a narrowing of the margin between the ruling party and the opposition compared to the 2019 elections.
The projected tally of 365 seats for the NDA marks a 3.4 per cent increase from its 2019 performance, where it secured 353 seats (with the BJP alone winning 303), while the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) secured 90 seats.
Comparatively, the NDA”s 2019 performance marked a five per cent increase from the 336 seats it won in the 2014 elections. The primary rival, which was the UPA in 2014 and 2019, and INDIA bloc in 2024, saw an increase from 60 seats in 2014 to 90 in 2019, reflecting a 50 per cent surge. In the current scenario, INDIA”s anticipated return of 122 seats represents a 35 per cent increase.
The data from the poll of opinion polls is derived from nine different surveys, including three conducted by ABP-C Voter on December 25, March 12, and April 16. Across these surveys, the NDA”s projected score sees a significant rise from 295-335 to 366 and eventually settling at 373 seats, while INDIA”s projection fluctuates from 163 to 156 and then 155 seats.
Among these surveys, the most optimistic projection for the BJP-led alliance comes from Times-ETG, which forecasts between 358 and 398 seats for the NDA and 110-130 seats for INDIA, with non-aligned parties expected to secure 64-68 seats.
Other notable surveys such as India TV-CNX, Zee News-Matrize, and Times-Matrize also predict over 350 seats for the NDA in each case, with INDIA receiving fewer than 100 seats. An exception is noted in Times Matrize, which projects 104 seats for the bloc.
The closest prediction comes from India Today-C Voter, where a sample of nearly 36,000 voters surveyed on February 8 suggests a return of 335 seats for the NDA, 166 seats for INDIA, and 42 seats for other opposition parties.
The NDA is anticipated to secure resounding victories in eight states and Union territories, including the national capital Delhi, Gujarat, and strategically significant Arunachal Pradesh in the northeast.
The NDA is expected to sweep Rajasthan, following its success in last year”s Assembly elections, along with Chandigarh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, and Daman and Diu. These regions collectively contribute 72 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Winning these constituencies would provide the BJP with a considerable advantage in the final seat count, especially considering the anticipated underperformance in South India, as indicated by the opinion polls.
In the 2019 elections, the BJP secured impressive victories in Delhi (seven seats), Gujarat (26), Arunachal Pradesh (two), Chandigarh (one), Uttarakhand (five), Himachal Pradesh (four), and Daman and Diu (one). The party claimed 24 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan, with the remaining seat going to an ally.
The BJP is expected to maintain its dominance in the Hindi heartland, with significant victories projected in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Madhya Pradesh. Out of the 149 contested seats in these states, the NDA could potentially secure a staggering 137 seats, nearly matching its 2019 performance.
In Bihar, where the opposition faced setbacks after Chief Minister Nitish Kumar”s return to the NDA fold with his Janata Dal (United) party, INDIA may only manage to secure five seats. Uttar Pradesh, with its 80 Lok Sabha seats, is likely to witness a BJP sweep, while the Congress may only clinch one seat in Madhya Pradesh.
The battleground states of Maharashtra and West Bengal are poised for intense showdowns. The BJP-led Mahayuti alliance is expected to dominate Maharashtra, potentially securing 30 out of its 48 seats, while in West Bengal, Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee”s Trinamool Congress is expected to secure a majority, with projections indicating 22 out of 42 seats, compared to BJP”s anticipated 19 seats. The Congress-led INDIA alliance, which includes Banerjee”s party, may struggle and secure only one seat in the state.
The BJP has traditionally struggled in the southern states, especially Tamil Nadu and Kerala. In 2019, it failed to secure a single seat in either state, receiving vote shares of 3.6 per cent and 2.3 per cent, respectively.
However, there are indications of potential shifts in this year”s elections, especially in Tamil Nadu. Projections suggest that the BJP could secure two seats in the state, a significant development considering Prime Minister Modi”s extensive campaigning with 10 visits in the past eight weeks. This time, the BJP is contesting independently in Tamil Nadu, without its traditional ally, the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIADMK), one of the major Dravidian parties in the region.
The primary beneficiary in Tamil Nadu is expected to be the INDIA alliance, led by the ruling Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (DMK), with a projected tally of 33 seats. In contrast, the AIADMK is anticipated to secure only four seats.
The BJP will reclaim ground in Karnataka following its setback in the Assembly elections. The NDA is projected to secure 23 out of Karnataka”s 28 seats.
In Andhra Pradesh, the ruling YSR Congress Party is expected to maintain its dominance, likely securing 16 out of the state”s 25 seats. This outcome may also serve as a precursor to the YSRCP”s performance in the concurrent Assembly elections.
In Telangana, a tightly contested three-way battle involving the BJP, the Congress, and the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) led by former Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao is expected. The Congress could secure nine seats, followed by the BJP with four, the BRS with three seats and remaining seat may go to Asaduddin Owaisi”s AIMIM party.
