Is Iran’s Nuclear Program Really A Threat To Israel?
On Friday, June 13th, Israel launched Operation Roaring Lion against Iran, targeting its nuclear infrastructure, senior military officials, and nuclear scientists, ballistic missile stockpiles, and energy infrastructure. The attack was read in Iran as an attempt to regime change; however, Israel presented Iran as an existential threat.
As per the reports, Israel recently received intelligence that Iran had resumed its weapons group activity in pursuit of a nuclear weapon. The combination of a country on the verge of military enrichment and an active weapons group was too dangerous in the eyes of Israel, which sought to exploit the operational window of opportunity and attack Iran as soon as it received the green light from US President Donald Trump.
Read also: “Cancer-Like Entity”: North Korea Says Israel Threatens West Asia Peace With US Backing
However, Trump wanted to avoid war, but Netanyahu sees a narrow window to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat and does not believe that the Iranian regime will agree to the kind of deal Trump wants. For Netanyahu, war was now the only option.
Notably, IAEA observes two of the nuclear enrichment sites in Iran and also, the Iran’s Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei denied using nuclear weapons against any country as it goes against the principles of the Islamic nation
Does Israel have the capability to destroy Iran’s nuclear program?
As per the Iranian authorities, the Natanz enrichment site has been impacted, and at the Esfahan site, four buildings, including a uranium conversion facility and a fuel plate fabrication plant, had been hit in the Israeli attacks.
However, Israel’s operation’s objective was not defined as the destruction of Iran’s nuclear program. Even before its Friday attack, it was clear that Israel has a relatively limited ability to destroy nuclear capabilities without active participation from the United States. Israel, however, significantly delayed Iran’s nuclear program by at least a year, mainly by striking facilities, starting with Natanz, assassinating nuclear scientist, and damaging additional sites. Nevertheless, without striking the enrichment facility at Fordow, which likely would require US participation, Iran’s nuclear program can not be destroyed, only significantly delayed.
How IAEA respond to Israel’s attack on Iran’s nuclear sites?
The IAEA said that nuclear facilities must never be attacked, regardless of the context or circumstances. The IAEA’s General Conference has published a resolution noting that any armed attack on and threat against nuclear facilities devoted to peaceful purposes constitutes a violation of the principles of the United Nations Charter, international law, and the Statute of the Agency. Whether Iran’s nuclear facilities were devoted to peaceful use is unclear, but regardless, attacks against any type of nuclear facility set a dangerous precedent.
Iran’s Expected Nuclear Response
The nuclear negotiation faltered between the US and Iran on negotiation over nuclear enrichment. On June 12, the IAEA declared Iran non-compliant with Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) obligations for the first time in 20 years. Iran responded by announcing a third uranium enrichment site and threatening NPT withdrawal.
Read also: How Iran’s Regional Proxies Are Responding Amid Ongoing Israel-Iran Conflict?
Paradoxically, the Israeli attack may encourage Iran to break out toward a nuclear weapon. Nevertheless, making such a decision at this time and Israel’s deep intelligence penetration into Iran’s nuclear program would be extremely dangerous for Iran and might even motivate Washington to directly join the campaign. Therefore, Iran may prefer to avoid a nuclear breakout, at least at this stage, and consider this option in the future. However, Iran can use the negotiation ploy to try to ensure regime survival for now.
