Maharashtra Assembly Election: Decoding The Political Climate

Maharashtra fell into a state of confusion and political instability when Shiv Sena and NCP split in 2022 and 2023, respectively. The two parties gave way to four factions and in total contributing to six major players in the State. The ruling NDA alliance, locally known as Mahayuti comprising the BJP, Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena, and NCP (Ajit Pawar faction). The opposition Maharashtra Vikas Aghadi (MVA) consists of three major partners: the Congress, the NCP led by Sharad Pawar, and Uddhav Thackeray faction of the Shiv Sena. With the recent setback from the Lok Sabha polls, the assembly polls proves to be critical for Mahayuti in retaining power, but it proves to be an existential battle for NCP and Shiv Sena, a battle for political survival as regional parties. Besides, the election result will also gives the verdict, which faction has been approved by the people.

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Following the General Election debacle in Maharashtra, Eknath Shinde government has introduced a slew of welfare measures to tackle the electorates discontent. Since the farmers distress over falling prices of crops, and unseasonable rain was evident in the Mahayuti’s loss of votes in the polls, the government brought electricity waivers where free electricity allotted to 44 lakh farmers, and measures such as soy and cotton farmers were given Rs. 5,000 per hectare to cover the gap between the MSP and market price, and the removal of export duty to onion farmers were adopted. Among them, the flagship Ladki Bahin scheme where Rs. 1,500 per month is being given to 1.85 crore women aged 21 to 65 across the State is presented as “game-changer”. Shinde led-government claims that the welfare schemes worth crores aiming for the benefits of all sections of society, and infrastructure projects completed in the State will secure victory for them in the election.

The MVA makes compelling poll promises to compete with welfare schemes and Congress attacks the government for facilitating the migration of top companies to Gujarat, and unemployment crisis. When election campaigns were to conclude, industrialist Gautam Adani became a focal point of Maharashtra election. Earlier Shiv Sena (UBT) leader scathing attack at Eknath Shinde and BJP for “looting Mumbai”, over the  allocation of 1,080 acres of land, allegedly handed to Adani Group free of cost, and the auctioning of prime plots in the city. Then, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi alleged that it is with the support of PM Modi, the Mahayuti government has transferred Dharavi land to Adani, and the entire government machinery worked to ensure it was done smoothly. During the campaigns, the opposition addressed the shifting of large industries to Gujarat as “injustice,” and it aggravates the unemployment crisis in the State. How the explosive allegations against the Mahayuti by the MVA will be perceived by the electorates and how it will appeal to their Maharashtra pride is to be seen.

Thackeray and Pawar believes that public sympathy is one their side. There are reports that the BJP, a non-Maratha based party, has generated drifts in the two regionally powerful political parties was not received well by voters. Will that sentiments aid the NCP (SP) and the Shiv Sena (UBT) reclaim the lost power and position in Maharashtra is need to be looked upon. NCP patriarch Sharad Pawar is currently the most powerful political leader in Maharashtra unlike any other times before. When Ajit Pawar defected the NCP and joined the ruling saffron party with majority of the MLAs from the party, Sharad Pawar was left with just 14 MLAs. When BJP thought the split will lead the end of political career of Sharad Pawar, he is seen putting the best fights to retain his place in the Maharashtra politics. Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar’s win in Baramati Lok Sabha seat against Ajit Pawar’s wife Sunethra Pawar conveyed that public support is with them and for Ajit Pawar, setback gave a re-thinking on the aggressive approach he is taking against his uncle.

At present, Ajit Pawar and his group is considered as the weakest link in the Mahayuti alliance. Of the 4 parliamentary seats it contested, his faction able to secure only one seat. When it comes to Assembly polls, challenge appears to be tough and critical for Ajit Pawar, to sustain his position in Mahayuti, he needs to win important constituencies by contesting against Sharad Pawar faction. The NCP enjoys considerable support base particularly in Western Maharashtra, and Ajit Pawar has to ascertain his position there. Ajit Pawar’s edge in Mahayuti is, the BJP cannot pose challenge to Sharad Pawar in his areas. About poll prospects, Ajit Pawar appears confident and said: “The Mahayuti will get around 175 seats.”

Uddhav Thackeray faction also need to obtain maximum number of votes to prove their superiority as the ‘real Shiv Sena’. Since Thackeray and Pawar has been denied of party symbols and nomenclature, accentuating the struggle to ascertain their political identity. Eknath Shinde claims him to be a legitimate heir of Bal Thackeray, founder of Shiv Sena. Shinde faction’s performance in the Lok Sabha polls, comparing to the partners was not bad. Shinde’s group 7 out of the 15 seats it contested, and still possess the support of the majority of the party leaders and legislators. Though Thackeray faction garnered two seats more than the Shinde Sena, not enough to relax about their prospects in assembly polls. Similar to Sharad Pawar, Thackeray has a public support for enduring Eknath Shinde rebellion in 2022. Attacking the rebel groups, both parties are also repeatedly stressing upon the “Gaddari” (betrayal) narrative and urges the supporters to oust the “traitors”. Though Shiv Sena (UBT) traces staunch Hindutva ideology, under his leadership, party began to adopt secular face which makes them acceptable among Muslims. The party’s edge in certain areas in the General election came from Muslim votes. However, the party’s increasingly secular Hindutva attitude aligning with the Congress threatens to topple its regional connection and core voter base. Analysing the Lok Sabha results, reports indicate that Thackeray faction faced the erosion of Maratha vote bank from the Mumbai, Marathawada and Konkan regions.

The caste factor going to play significant role in the Maharashtra polls. The Maratha protest over reservation demand influenced Lok Sabha polls, adversely affecting Mahayuti. Since Maratha reservation activist Manoj Jarange-Patil announced his decision to withdrew from polls, the votes from the aggrieved Marathas are likely to favour MVA. Sharad Pawar enjoys the support of Maratha community and there are also observations that Manoj Jarange-Patil is the front of Sharad Pawar. The Congress is also aligning their erstwhile Dalit-Muslim-Kunbi axis to secure votes. As a response, the BJP has revived their MADHAV (Mali-Dhangar-Vanjari) caste formula aiming for a consolidation of OBC vote bank, particularly non-Maratha Hindu vote bank. Since OBCs do not possess a single identity, its consolidation is difficult to attain. However, the government tried to gave all assistance to the protest of Laxman Hake for the mobilisation of counter-Maratha vote bank.

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The BJP’s plan in Maharashtra is to oust the regional players and sustain as the largest party. It is with Hindutva plank and Modi’s popularity the BJP emerged as the largest party in Maharashtra. By finding the foothold in the state, the party is indulging in tactics to erase NCP and Shiv Sena’s hold. The split in the NCP and Shiv Sena is considered as one such move. At the same time, there is also strong criticism against the BJP, especially over Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis for prompting the rebellion in regional parties and for horse-trading. Fadnavis is also facing wrath for failing law and order situation in the State, after the death of NCP leader Baba Siddique. The reducing number of seats from 2014 to 2019 is also alarming for the saffron party, in their hope to sustain in power as largest party. As the poll results come on Saturday, November 23,  it will see whether regional spirit got revived or nationalist politics retaining power.