The Final Picture - How Madhya Pradesh Will Vote?
Madhya Pradesh will be heading poll booths on November 17 and the state is expected to witness a tough battle between the incumbent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the opposition Indian National Congress (INC). The BJP has nominated seven MPs, including three Union Ministers, and a general secretary for the upcoming elections in the state and arranged multiple campaigns for central leaders including Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Meanwhile, former Chief Minister and Madhya Pradesh Congress leader Kamal Nath claimed that, by the 2023 elections the state will bid farewell to BJP.
Madhya Pradesh, where the recent elections were all outright battles between the ruling BJP and Congress, is on high surveillance as this edition is also anticipated to be stiff encounter between the two parties. Congress seems more confident as backed by the newly contrived opposition alliance INDIA, while BJP affirmed to retain the government despite any cost.
According to the Chief Electoral Officer office of Madhya Pradesh, the state fields at least 2533 candidates in the upcoming elections, including of all political parties and independent candidates. The ruling BJP has 230 candidates in total, covering all the constituencies, among which 203 are male and 27 females. Among the 230 candidates of Congress, 200 are male and 30 are females. The Aam Aadmi Party is also there in the forefront of battle with a total of 66 competitors – 54 male, 11 female and one transgender. So far, 106 political parties have filed nominations, and among the candidates, 1166 are independent competitors.
Read the full candidate list of Madhya Pradesh Assembly Elections 2023 here
The BJP expects an easy win looking back to the state’s previous history. The sitting Chief Minister is there in the office since 2005, except a two-year break in 2018 to 2020. He is the longest-serving CM of Madhya Pradesh (4 times) and also the national Vice-President of BJP – a steadfast labourer of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS).
Congress hopes to overturn the rulings side, mainly articulating the corruptions and mistakes of the government, boredom with a long-playing incumbent, and a yearning for change, says the Indian Express. Counting is scheduled on December 3, 2023, and the election will be conducted in a single phase in all its 230 assembly constituencies.
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The state’s 21.09% population, as per reports are from the tribal communities, which approximately 1,53,16,784 in number. Considering this aspect, the Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently launched a scheme worth Rs 24,000 crore for the welfare of tribals in the country. He was addressing a gathering in Betul, a municipality in Madhya Pradesh and said that BJP’s victory is assured in the upcoming polls of the state.
The incumbent party has also recently set an argument with Congress on a video that seems to show Union Agriculture Minister Narendra Singh Tomar”s son Devendra Singh Tomar negotiating a “deal” worth Rs 500 crore. This is the second video of the month and in the previous one, Mr Tomar junior was said discussing three deals worth a combined Rs 139 crore. Meanwhile BJP dismissed the Congress’ attack regarding the video.
The Congress leader and former Chief Minister Kamal Nath is on a renewed attempt. It was in 2018, Kamal Nath chosen to be the CM as Congress took over the state after 2003. But however, in 2020, the Supreme Court of India issued a 24-hour notice to the Kamal Nath government on a petition filed by Mr Chouhan in which Mr Chouhan sought a floor test in the state legislative assembly immediately. Madhya Pradesh eventually witnessed a political overturn in 2020 after 22 Congress MLAs resigned along with Jyotiraditya Scindia resulting the collapse of Kamal Nath government. The 77-year Congress veteran is the sitting MLA from Chhindwara and is now contesting against BJP candidate Vivek Bunty Sahu. Both of them also locked horns in the 2018 assembly polls when Mr Nath trounced Mr Sahu by a margin of 25,837 votes.
Shivraj Singh Chouhan recently addressing a rally said, Kamal Nath is an “outsider” to the state and cannot be trusted. Mr Chouhan also promised to build CM Rise schools in 30 districts and said that there will be “labs, a library, a smart class, and a bus service to pick up and drop off students. All this will be for free”. Meanwhile Kamal Nath slammed the BJP government as they had “ruined” the state. “Ruined health system, ruined education system, ruined agricultural system, ruined industries, ruined economy, ruined ration system, and ruined nutrition system. This truth is in front of everyone”, he added.
The Congress President, Mallikarjun Kharge, while speaking in Gwalior criticised that the Enforcement Directorate (ED) is the BJP “star campaigner” in the ongoing assembly elections. He alleged that the Central Bureau of Investigation and the Income Tax department are also in the fray on the BJP”s behalf.
Amid all these, the pre-poll surveys led by multiple organisations are suggesting various results. The opinion poll set by the Mint reflects a caste dynamics in the state where Mr Chouhan is likely to be on the top of various castes. According to the India TV-CNX Opinion Poll, the Congress party is expected to become the first choice of Muslims and the Bheel community in the state.
The ABP-CVoter Opinion Poll data predicted that the ruling BJP and Congress are expected to undergo a neck-and-neck political battle as the saffron party is only 0.1% ahead of Congress. According to the survey, Congress can secure 113 to 125 seats out of 230 constituencies, while BJP is likely to win 104 to 116 seats.
Even though Congress is the primary contender to challenge BJP, they will be also battling against their partners in opposition bloc INDIA, in 92 out of the 230 seats. Of these 92 seats, 26 are those where the party will be electorally combating against not one but two INDIA allies: the Samajwadi Party (SP) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP). In three others, the party will be facing the candidates of AAP, as well as the Janata Dal (United).
According to India Today, five seats are the most pivotal to look crucial into – that includes those held by BJP”s Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Congress” Kamal Nath. In Budhni, major candidates are Shivraj Singh Chouhan (BJP) and Vikram Mastal (INC), and Mr Chouhan is the sitting leader.
Chhindwara is Kamal Nath”s fortress and he is currently fielded against BJP’s Chandrabhan K Singh. Narsingpur on the other hand is BJP’s OBC Champion and is expected to witness a tough fight between Prahlad Singh Patel (BJP) and Lakhan Singh Patel (INC). Currently the constituency is guarded by BJP’s Jalam Singh Patel.
Indore-1 will be a clash of Congress and BJP – a battle between Kailash Vijayvargiya (BJP) and Sanjay Shukla (INC). Previously in 2018, the seat was occupied by Sanjay Shukla (INC) and in 2013 by Sudarshan Gupta (BJP). Lahar is an unbroken streak of Dr Govind Singh, where he is now contesting with BJP’s Ambrish Sharma.
For Congress, BJP, and AAP, its major national leaders had already super-headed the campaigns – including Rahul Gandhi, PM Modi, Priyanka Gandhi, Amit Shah, J P Nadda, Rajnath Singh, Nitin Gadkari, Yogi Adityanath, Mallikarjun Kharge, Akhilesh Yadav, and Arvind Kejriwal. The state and nation have to wait till December 3 to know whose fate will be decided by the civilians of Madhya Pradesh through the November 17 polls.
