Western UP: Picture In Progress (image: facebook.com/BJP4UP; JayantRLD; samajwadiparty; /x.com/Mayawati/instagram.com/bhimarmychief)
The Western Uttar Pradesh (UP) plays a great role in deciding a state’s political landscape. The sixteen constituencies in the state’s “sugar belt,” with a significant presence of Muslims, Scheduled Castes (SCs), and Other Backward Classes (OBCs), are the challenging factors for the three key players in the state: the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the opposition INDIA bloc, and the BSP.
The demographic composition of Western UP represents 72.29 percent Hindu, 28–30 percent Muslim, and 18–20 percent Dalit population. In many constituencies, the minority vote bank is influential, which results in intense electoral battles. Since it is an agriculture region, it could be seen in the high presence of agricultural labourers.
In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP has secured 10 of these western constituencies: Muzzaffarnagar, Pilbhit, Kairana, Meerut, Baghpat, Ghaziabad, Gautam Buddha Nagar, Bulandshahr, Aligarh, and Mathura. Though the then SP-BSP-RLD alliance put up a great fight, BSP secured victories in three seats, SP won two, and RLD failed to get any.
This time, the electoral dynamics have changed a great deal since the BSP decided to go independently; the RLD has joined the NDA; and the SP is now part of the INDIA bloc, the opposition coalition.
BJP
Analysing the last decade, it can be concluded that Western UP has been influential in contributing to the electoral aftermath for the BJP in the state. In the “Modi wave” 2014 General Elections, following the 2017 and 2022 State Assembly Elections, and in the 2019 General Elections the region has witnessed alterations in the saffron party’s dominance. The previous records highlight that the party’s high performance in UP is primarily due to its win in the Western region.
In the 2014 Lok Sabha polls, the BJP won all eight seats, constituting an impressive total of 71 seats (73 by the NDA in alliance with the Apna Dal). Meanwhile, in the 2019 elections, with the SP-RLD-BSP alliance, the BJP faced mishaps wherein the latter could obtain only three seats—a significant departure from the previous noteworthy performance. It resulted in the in the BJP gathering a total of 62 seats—a decline of nine votes from the 2014 elections.
At the campaign front, the BJP’s top leadership can be seen, and they highlight the construction of the Ram Temple in Ayodhya and the Yogi Adityanath-led government’s projects on development, restoration of law and order in the state, and initiatives such as timely payment to sugarcane farmers.
The BJP’s prominent candidates in the Western UP are Union Minister Sanjeev Balyan (Muzaffarnagar), Arun Govil (Meerut), State Minister Jitin Prasada (Pilibhit), and Pradeep Choudhari (Kairana).
RLD and Jats Factor
Though Jats contribute only merely 2 percent of the state’s population, no party can ignore them in western Uttar Pradesh. Nearly 15-20 percent of Jats presence can be located in over 10 Lok Sabha constituencies in Western UP. Jats mostly belong to agrarian communities, prominently sugar cane farmers. Besides, they enjoy financial power in the region, which plays a huge role in deciding the poll outcome.
After former Prime Minister Chaudhary Charan Singh was conferred the prestigious Bharat Ratna Award, his grandson and Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) chief, Jayant Chaudhary, joined the NDA alliance. RLD’s support comes from Jat vote bank. Political experts observe that the saffron party received Jat support post-2013 Muzaffarnagar riots when Jats clashed with Muslims. At the same time, they also add that Jat support for the BJP has reduced from 91% (2019 Lok Sabha polls) to 71% (2022 Assembly elections), primarily due to farmer’s protests and Jats’ demand for reservation. Through its alliance with the RLD, the BJP hopes to appease Jats discontentment, while the former aims to advance its core vote bank as well as its political prospects. The RLD has been given the Jat heartland seats in Baghpat and Bijnor.
Professor Pandey told the Economic Times that by aligning with the BJP, RLD may lose Muslims but would gain Hindu votes (OBC and Dalit included), and the Jat vote might then consolidate, which could pay off in Punjab and Haryana.
SP-Congress
This time, the SP and Congress are in an alliance in the poll fray. They focus on consolidating the Muslims, the OBCs, and the Dalits vote in their favour. Akhilesh Yadav’s SP is seeking votes under the slogan of PDA—Pichda, Dalit, Alpsankhyak—which signals the mobilisation of OBCs, Dalits, and Muslims. Besides being financially proficient, the Jat community, which has a dense Muslim population, also constitutes Western UP. Since 2014, the saffron party has gotten hold of electoral politics by riding on communal sentiments accentuated by the 2013 Muzaffarnagar communal riots and through the dispersal of non-Yadav communities. In such a scenario, there are high chances that the Muslims might see the main Opposition alliance—the Congress and the Samajwadi Party—as their political alternative.
A major reason behind the NDA securing victories in the state since 2014 has been its polarisation of non-Yadav OBCs to their benefit. Their caste equations mainly focused on the consolidation of non-Yadav OBCs and Upper Castes (UCs). Meanwhile, the INDIA bloc forged great resistance to the NDA by contesting more non-Yadav OBCs.
Major SP candidates in the fray include Ikra Hasan (Kairana), Delhi-based cleric Mohibbullah Nadvi (Rampur), and Ruchi Veera (Moradabad). Meanwhile, Congress has fielded Imran Masood (Saharanpur) and Danish Ali (Amroha).
BSP
Launching the poll campaign, BSP supremo Maywati told the gathering that she will initiate “concrete steps” to make western Uttar Pradesh a separate state if her government comes to power at the Centre. The BSP, which has given party tickets evaluating the caste combination in the respective constituencies, has dealt a blow to other parties.
It has been argued that Dalit-Muslim candidates could affect the prospects of INDIA and upper-caste candidates could trouble the NDA’s chances. “Mayawati has put up Muslim candidates in minority-dominated seats such as Rampur, Moradabad, and Saharanpur, which may cut into INDIA votes. But she has also fielded OBC and forward caste candidates in polarised seats such as Kairana and Muzaffarnagar, which could dent the NDA,” India Today observes.
In the 2019 polls, the BSP won three seats: Bijnor, Nagina, and Saharanpur. This time, the party has fielded Chaudhary Vijendra Singh (Bijnor), Surendra Pal Singh (Nagina), and Majid Ali (Saharanpur).
Chandrashekhar Azad of the Azad Samaj Party
Chandrashekhar Azad emerged as one of the prominent figures in Western UP’s electoral arena. Aazad and his four-year-old Aazad Samaj Party (ASP) contested their debut Lok Sabha polls from Nagina constituency. He is also the president of the Bhim Army. With Azad’s entry, Nagina witnessed a four-cornered contest. Though talks were held between INDIA and ASP, they did not come to fruition since SP refused to agree to Azad’s demand for Nagina’s seat and offered him Agra or Bulandshahr instead. Prior to this, Azad made many efforts to forge an alliance with the BSP as well.
