BVR Subrahmanyam, CEO, NITI Aayog. (image-X/NITIAayog)

Contrary to recent remarks made by NITI Aayog CEO BVR Subrahmanyam, India has not yet surpassed Japan to become the world’s fourth-largest economy. While India is on the verge of achieving this milestone, the latest data from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) confirms that the shift has not occurred – yet.

Speaking at a public event on May 24, Subrahmanyam had declared, “We are the fourth-largest economy as I speak. We are a $4 trillion economy… and this is not my data. This is IMF data. India today is larger than Japan.”

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However, the IMF’s April 2025 World Economic Outlook projects India’s nominal GDP at $3.91 trillion for fiscal year 2024–25 (FY25), while Japan’s nominal GDP is estimated at $4.03 trillion for calendar year 2024. This places India still behind Japan, making it the fifth-largest economy in the world for now.

According to IMF projections, India is expected to overtake Japan in FY26, when its GDP is estimated to reach $4.187 trillion, just ahead of Japan’s $4.186 trillion. This change is expected to officially reflect in the global rankings sometime in 2025, with India likely overtaking Germany by 2028 to become the third-largest economy.

The confusion stems partly from how the IMF labels India’s data. While India uses a fiscal year (April–March), the IMF aligns this with calendar years for consistency. This means FY25 is labeled as “2024” and FY26 as “2025” in IMF tables—potentially leading to premature conclusions.

Subrahmanyam’s statement, while based on IMF data, appears to misinterpret these nuances. “It is only the United States, China, and Germany which are larger,” he had said, projecting India’s rise to third place within the next two to three years.

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India’s official GDP figures for FY25 are expected to be released by the National Statistics Office (NSO) on May 30. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), meanwhile, forecasts a GDP growth rate of 6.5% for FY26, reinforcing India’s long-term upward trajectory.

For now, though, IMF data confirms that India remains the world’s fifth-largest economy.