Kerala May Face More 2018-Like Floods Unless Design Standards Are Upgraded: Study
Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala: A new study which was conducted by researchers from the civil engineering department of TKM College of Engineering, Kollam, warned that floods of the scale of 2018 could now strike the state every 25 years. The frequency was earlier believed to occur only once in 150 years.
The researchers warned the state with the study analysing four decades of river flow data in Kerala. It found that the state’s current flood models underestimate real flood risk by up to 40%.
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The situation may leave major infrastructure vulnerable as climate change intensifies and calamities. The study pointed out that Kerala’s flood maps, dam safety norms and drainage design standards no longer reflect current rainfall patterns, given that the towns are now going underwater even after moderate rainfall.
The researchers used non-stationary flood frequency analysis to identify the shift. The method accommodates climate variability linked to factors such as El Niño, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).
The experts studied 40 years of flood discharge records (1980-2019) from the Irrigation Design and Research Board to reach the conclusion.
The study recommended that the flood designs need to evolve with climate reality while warning that unless design standards are urgently updated, even usual monsoon spells could trigger severe flooding in vulnerable regions.
