Darbhanga Lok Sabha Seat: BJP And RJD In Head-To-Head Battle, M-Y Equation At Play

In the upcoming election for Darbhanga Lok Sabha Seat, the BJP and RJD are gearing up for a head-to-head battle, with M-Y Equation, i.e., the Muslim and Yadav vote bloc – are all set to play a crucial role in shaping the electoral outcome. Darbhanga Lok Sabha constituency is one of the 40 Lok Sabha (parliamentary) constituencies in Bihar. There was a tough fight on Darbhanga Lok Sabha seat between Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) candidate Lalit Yadav and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidate Gopal Jee Thakur.

Gopal Jee Thakur, currently serves as Darbhanga MP. In the 2019 Lok Sabha Election, the total number of voters in Darbhanga was approximately 1,654,811, with a voter turnout of 58.35%. Darbhanga is considered to be an area dominated by Yadavs, Muslims and Brahmins. With around 3.5 lakh Muslim voters, and nearly the same number of Yadav and Brahmin voters, along with sizeable populations of Rajput and Bhumihar voters, the constituency holds considerable importance in Bihar’s political landscape. Despite BJP’s recent dominance in the last two general elections, the ongoing contest remains intense.

In the 2019 Assembly elections, BJP’s Gopal Jee Thakur emerged victorious, defeating RJD’s Abdul Bari Siddiqui. The M-Y equation, reflecting the voting tendencies of Muslims and Yadavs, continues to be a decisive factor. Darbhanga’s significance is further underscored as Bihar remains a critical battleground for BJP, RJD, and Congress alike.

Lalit Yadav, the current MLA representing Darbhanga Rural constituency, holds significant sway over RJD’s support base, making the electoral battle fiercely contested one. The RJD is banking on the Mahagathbandhan, led by the RJD and Congress, to bolster its chances in the election. With the India Alliance led by Tejashwi Yadav gaining momentum, political analysts suggest that the NDA may not replicate its 2019 Lok Sabha performance, where it secured 39 out of 40 seats in the state . Despite being in jail during the 2019 Lok Sabha and 2020 assembly elections, Lalu Prasad Yadav has been actively strategising, particularly targeting the Extremely Backward Classes (EBCs) and non-Yadav Other Backward Classes (OBCs) to advance their support base beyond the M-Y (Muslim-Yadav) combination.

While the BJP has focused on consolidating support among the upper castes, it has also made strides in winning over the Yadav community. Notably, the party has nominated upper caste candidates for 11 out of its 17 seats in Bihar, including Gopal Jee Thakur from Darbhanga. Thakur, a farmer and social worker, holds key positions in the BJP, serving on the Standing Committee on Railways and the Consultative Committee for the Ministry of Railways.

In January, Bihar politics saw a major shift when Chief Minister Nitish Kumar exited the Mahagathbandhan alliance to form a new alliance with the BJP, known as the NDA (National Democratic Alliance). Additionally, Jitan Ram Manjhi’s party, Hindustani Awam Morcha (HAM), has also joined the NDA fold.

(This story is part of a Timeline. internship project.)