Will Iran Leave Nuclear Proliferation Treaty (NPT) After US Attacks On Its Nuclear Sites?
As the geopolitical landscape in West Asia continues to evolve amid the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict, following the direct involvement of the United States. The question is about Iran’s future engagement with the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT).
After the US attacks on three Iranian Nuclear sites in Natanz, Esfahan, and Fordow, concerns are rising that Iran may threaten or choose to leave the NPT. The recent attacks show that the NPT remains structurally weak, especially when it comes to enforcement and accountability amid the continuous mistrust between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states.
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On June 12, in response to the IAEA’s calling Iran non-compliant with the treaty, Iran threatened to leave the NPT. Now, the question is whether Iran may opt out of the Nuclear Treaty or not.
What are Iran’s options?
- Stay within the NPT and continue uranium enrichment under IAEA oversight. Use diplomatic channels to negotiate and diffuse mistrust by being involved in JCPOA talks with the US.
- Withdraw from the NPT, a legal move that will bring international isolation and preemptive actions.
- To work for a nuclear-free region in collaboration with regional and international players.
- To continue with the current level of the program, using it as a lever against Israel and US intervention.
As Iran has the legal right to withdraw from the NPT under Article X, after giving a three-month notice citing extraordinary events it believes have jeopardized its supreme interests. However, as per the analysts, the political consequences of such a move could be severe, potentially accelerating further regional instability and undermining the already strained global non-proliferation regime.
Iran has so far allegedly accused of playing with the threshold but has not crossed the nuclear Rubicon and kept the door open for diplomacy. However, amid the ongoing unprovoked strikes by the US and Israel, Tehran’s patience can not be said to be unlimited.
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The declared enrichment of Iran, however not go beyond the 60% limit. If it goes beyond above 80% limit, as alleged by Israel and the US at certain undisclosed locations, it could be seen as a strategic move to secure its existence amid the constant threat from Israel and deterrence.
Considering the heavy sanctions on Iran, it is highly unlikely that Iran will leave the NPT and would take the route of legal actions to further its security in the region.
