Maharashtra Assembly Elections Dynamics: The Power Play Among Alliances
Maharashtra has seen significant political change in the last five years, with several splits and divisions forming a new political terrain in the state. The division of the Shiv Sena into the Eknath Shinde and Uddhav Thackeray-led fractions and the split in the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) into Ajit Pawar and Sharad Pawar-led groups have drastically altered the political sphere of the state.
The upcoming assembly elections scheduled for November 20 will be thus a fiery contest between the various political forces, including both the regional and national parties to reaffirm their political strength.
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The contest is observed to be tight between the two alliances—the Shinde-led Shiv Sena’s ruling MahaYuti (Grand Alliance) and the opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA). The MahaYuti of the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is led by the BJP, Shinde-led Shiv Sena and Ajit Pawar’s NCP. The MVA, on the other hand comprise Thackeray’s Shiv Sena, Congress, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP, posing significant challenges to the ruling front.
During the 2019 assembly elections, the BJP and its ally Shiv Sena emerged victorious, defeating the Congress-NCP front. However, with the recent splits in the regional forces and the reorganization of the political landscape, the election is analysed to be a litmus test for them to claim their authority with the vote they could accumulate. Notably, the seat-sharing talk in the alliances is yet to be finalised.
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After forming the government by the pre-poll Shiv Sena-BJP alliance post-2019 election assembly elections, the dispute over chief ministership resulted in the collapse of the government and the formation of MVA government under Thackeray. The politics again underwent drastic change with Shiv Sena’s Eknath Shinde’s rebellion, leading to the toppling of the Thackeray government and the formation of a Shinde-led government supported by the saffron party. The following split in NCP also fragmented the state politics, making it hard to predict the upcoming people’s mandate.
Looking at the recently-held Lok Sabha elections, the potential of MVA emerging victorious can be inferred as the alliance secured 30 seats out of the total 48 parliamentary constituencies from the state. The Congress became the single largest party, securing 13 seats while the BJP was reduced to nine.
The MahaYuti alliance could secure only 17, with political analysts suggesting locals’s outrage against the ruling front ignited by the Maratha quota agitation, farmers’ distress, and unemployment. The NCP leader and former Maharashtra Minister Baba Siddiqu’s murder has raised further criticism against the government over the law and order situation in the state. The NCP leader and Maharashtra deputy chief minister Ajit Pawar also held the home department headed by his cabinet colleague Devendra Fadnavis responsible for the “dangerous security situation prevalent in Mumbai” over the death of his Baba Siddique. There have been serious jolt to the Ajit Pawar’s NCP as several of its leaders have switched to Sharad Pawar’s faction in the recent months.
