The Final Picture: How Telangana Will Vote?
Telangana Assembly elections fall on November 30, and the incumbent Chief Minister K Chandrashekar Rao is aggressively fighting for a hat-trick. With a slew of welfare measures, direct benefit transfer schemes and impassioned speech about the struggle and sacrifice for the Telangana state BRS chief appeals to the emotions of the people. He even coined the slogan, “Let’s go from Good to Great.” KCR utilised the first-mover advantage by unveiling party’s candidates for the total of 119 assembly segments in August, and started the election campaign leading him at the forefront of election rallies.
Congress emerged confident after Karnataka election victory is in revival mode in Telangana. The grand old party exposes the faulty implementation and mismanagement of welfare schemes, the ever-increasing welfare budget, and allegations of corruption by public representatives, which pose strong challenges to the ruling BRS. In fact, Congress’ poll promises, announcement of six Guarantees similar in the line attained successful in Karnataka, is also makes a compelling alternative for people of Telangana. Furthermore, Congress strategically attacks KCR’s image as the tallest leader and his claim as the chief architect of the state; Telangana Congress President and feisty leader A Revanth Reddy will face KCR in Kamareddy. On top of that, they spread their counter-narrative to KCR’s statehood claims that former Congress president Sonia Gandhi helped the creation of the state of Telangana.
Furthermore, Telangana Assembly election marks significant presence of BJP in the state. Though chances of the saffron party coming to power is less, the influence it may hold on Telangana votes, would decide the outcome for Congress and BRS. BJP’s Eatala Rajender, former BRS Minister fighting against KCR in Gajwel, his home ground comprising significant Mudiraj community population, is a battle to witness. Both BJP and Congress charge KCR family for amassing wealth through the rampant corruption in the schemes, especially their flagship Kaleshwaram Lift Irrigation Project. They also accuse dynasty politics (parivarvaaad) and nepotism in BRS citing KCR’S family holding significant position in the top tier governance.
Meanwhile, Home Minister Amit Shah announced that appointing a Chief Minister from the Backward Class if they come to power in Telangana was meant to woo 52 per cent of the OBC population in the state. It puts Congress, considered to be a party dominated by Reddy, in a tight spot because a party who valiantly support caste census failed to put across adequate OBC representation in candidate list. When BJP reserved its 36 seats to OBC both BRS and Congress concluded it with 23 seats. BRS already possess a tag of “upper caste party,” and Home Minister recalls KCR”s promise to make a Dalit as Chief Minister and jabs at KCR for comfortably ignoring the promise. Asaduddin Owaisi’s All India Majlis-E-Ittehadul Muslimeen (AIMIM) standing close to BRS as “friendly ally” may pose threat as “vote cutter” toppling Congress prospects in the state. As per the recent reports, the saffron party with its surprising turns, is likely to emerge as a spoilsport for the ruling BRS and rival Congress in at least 15-20 assembly seats.
KCR is pitching the Telangana model of growth story in terms of per capita income, advancements in power supply and irrigation, industry growth through innovative incentive schemes, and providing copious investment subsidies through the Rythu Bandhu Scheme. The goodwill of the various welfare schemes, and Telangana sentiment would turn into votes, KCR calculates. However, the anti-incumbency faced by over 40 corrupt MLAs, youth disappointment due to the severe unemployment crisis, sluggish implementation of the 2BHK housing scheme or Dalit Bandhu grant, woes of tenant farmers, suspension of civil organisation, or no space for protest in the state all present KCR and BRS”s hat-trick journey as not a cakewalk. In 2018, BRS (then Telangana Rashtra Samithi) won 88 of the 119 seats, securing 46. 8 per cent of the vote share while Congress could gather only 19 seats with 28. 4 per cent vote share. As then the difference between both parties was 18. 4 per cent, the current opinion polls suggest that in this election, the grand old party will reduce the gap with BRS significantly. The polls reflect anti-incumbency, and foresee that though KCR put the majority of his sitting MLAs in the fray it won’t be easy for many BRS MLAs to get re-elected. Hence, KCR’s victory is predicted with far less seats.
Nevertheless, if observed, all the probable Telangana results point to a new narrative history: if KCR emerged victorious, it will be the first time in South India a Chief Minister will continue in power for a third time; if Congress turned victorious, it will reflect the party’s rebirth and will underline the strong anti-incumbency wave in Telangana; and if incidentally, polls point to a hung parliament that will also mark a first time in history.
