For many, the Haryana assembly election result, released on October 8, was a shocker, which defied popular perspective, exit poll forecasts, and political analysts’ predictions. Many observed anti-incumbency stemming from several issues, such as farmers’ protests and unemployment, among others, would reflect in the election, bringing about a change in the government and paving the way for a comfortable victory for the Congress party. Pollsters anticipated an edge for the grand old party, drawing conclusions from the recent Lok Sabha elections that saw Congress gaining upper hand among the majority of Haryana parliamentary constituencies.

As Maharashtra is all prepared to witness a fierce battle in the upcoming assembly elections scheduled for November 20, analysts are clueless whether the Haryana result will repeat in Maharashtra for the INDIA bloc. Given the prevailing situation and the recent Lok Sabha elections result, the public appears to be inclined toward Congress and other INDIA bloc members. During the Lok Sabha elections, Congress emerged as the single largest party, securing 13 out of 48 total seats while its allies in the MVA, Shive Sena UBT, bagged nine and Sharad Pawar’s NCP accumulated eight. The Mahayuthi members received relatively fewer seats, as the BJP got nine, the Shinde-led Shive Sena seven, and Ajit Pawar’s NCP only one. Projecting this, many have forecast a potential victory for the MVA alliance.

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On the Haryana result, many blamed Congress’ overconfidence for its electoral setback and the hat-trick victory of the saffron party, noting the grand old party’s failure to secure a deal with INDIA bloc partners such as AAP and SP. The BJP emerged victorious, securing 48 seats, while the Congress won 37 out of the 90-member assembly.

It is observed that given the Lok Sabha result, the MVA alliance comprising Congress, Shive Sena UBT, and Sharad Pawar’s NCP could emerge victorious in the upcoming assembly elections if it works properly without taking people’s mandates granted. It has been proven that pinning the hope on the confidence sometime can backfire, and the party therefore needs to work together with the allies strategically and tirelessly to ensure the victory.

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Notably, several rebel Congress candidates in Haryana impeded the party’s potential victory in many constituencies, and it is even understood that without the rebels, the party could have surpassed the simple majority in the assembly.

As a state that faces its first election since several splits in its political terrain, it is hard to predict the poll outcome. Observing the development, author Sudhir Suryawanshi opined that Lok Sabha elections had given big momentum to MVA but “they took the people’s mandate granted & got relaxed as people are going to vote them only,” adding that things are changing very fast and MahaYuti speedily catching up, bridging the gap being ahead in seat announcement and perception battle.

Lok Sabha elections had given big momentum to MVA, but they took the people’s mandate granted and got relaxed as people are going to vote for them only. Things changing very fast, MahaYuti speedily catching up, bridging the gap, and its ahead in seat announcement and perception battle also.

— Sudhir Suryawanshi (@ss_suryawanshi) October 24, 2024