Nilambur Election Result: What Party Insiders Say About Outcome Of The Triangular Contest
Nilambur, Kerala: As the political temperature rises ahead of the Nilambur by-election results on June 23, insiders from across the political spectrum are offering their takes on the intensely fought triangular contest between the United Democratic Front (UDF), the Left Democratic Front (LDF), and independent candidate P.V. Anvar. With a polling percentage of 75.27% – almost mirroring the 2021 turnout – political circles are rife with speculation, calculations, and unease.
According to a senior UDF insider, the party is optimistic this time due to a rare show of unity. “In the last two elections, the League wasn’t active for the Congress candidate. When VV Prakash contested, a Congress faction even backstabbed him. But this time, the entire Congress and UDF worked wholeheartedly for Shoukath,” the insider explained. “Even Anvar’s presence might help us, as we believe 80% of the votes he’ll take are from the LDF base. In many ways, his decision to contest could turn out to be a blessing in disguise.”
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The UDF is projecting a majority of 10,000 to 15,000 votes, with strong leads anticipated from Wandoor, Moothadam, Edakkara, Chungathara, and Karulayi panchayats. “We’re seeing excellent polling in our strongholds. If Shoukath doesn’t win, it might destabilise the UDF-League alliance. League leaders are watching carefully and might consider their options if LDF returns next year,” the insider warned.
There’s also reflection on internal decisions that shaped the contest. “We couldn’t believe why VD Satheeshan was against bringing Anvar into the UDF fold. But when he explained Anvar’s unreasonable demands— including complete control over campaigning and strategy—it made sense. That clarity was crucial.”
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Adding a touch of caution, the insider acknowledged, “If Swaraj wins, there will be big explosions in the Congress and the fall of VD Satheeshan could be one of them. But we’re hopeful, especially with leaders like Chandy Oommen, Shafi Parambil, Rahul Mankoottathil and PK Firose energising the ground campaign.”
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For the LDF, the stakes are equally high. A party strategist noted their confidence stemmed from expected leads in Pothukallu, Karulayi, and Amaramvalam. “Swaraj has inspired grassroots enthusiasm. The Chief Minister and several ministers campaigned intensively. We expect that mobilisation to show results,” the source said.
However, the LDF knows it’s not a smooth road. “We have to prove Anvar’s exit hasn’t weakened us. If we lose, questions will arise about the leadership’s choices—especially after M.V. Govindan’s controversial remarks in the final phase.”
The LDF source dismissed UDF’s optimism. “They are banking on communal consolidation and anti-incumbency. But that won’t work here. Even if Anvar wins 10,000 votes, it’ll only split their base. Besides, our support in the municipality remains intact, and our young cadres have worked relentlessly.”
CPI(M)’s M Swaraj Interacting With Voters In Nilambur
Yet, there’s unease over Anvar’s reach. “He could win some anti-Left votes. His criticism of the LDF on local issues—especially in the hill areas—has traction. But we’re not too worried. The party has made a commitment to reward Swaraj, win or lose. A Rajya Sabha seat is on the table.”
Meanwhile, Anvar’s team is confident about a strong showing. While his earlier claim of 75,000 votes has been revised to around 25,000, his supporters say anything over 10,000 would be a success. “People are upset with both fronts. Anvar offers a genuine alternative,” a campaign member stated.
Notably, his camp believes that Anvar’s visibility and criticisms, particularly over local infrastructure and government apathy, have resonated with voters and that would benefit UDF, as the voters wants to believe a group with legacy. Observers note that Swaraj might have lost support from the AP Sunni group due to past remarks and not visiting its leader, AP Abookacker Musliyar.
An old video where Swaraj said, “I belong to Thripunithura, not Nilambur,” has also been doing the rounds, which the UDF believes may dent his credibility among local voters.
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For the NDA, the fight is more about relevance. Their candidate, Adv. Mohan George, is expected to maintain or slightly improve upon his 8,500 vote tally from last time. “He’s worked well among Christian voters, and if we cross 10,000 this time, it’ll be a moral victory,” said an NDA worker.
The result, then, is on a knife’s edge. While UDF believes that widespread dissatisfaction with the LDF government and the Muslim League’s full involvement will deliver victory, the LDF trusts its organisational strength and campaign machinery. As for Anvar, he hopes to be the kingmaker—or spoiler.
The counting on June 23 will not just determine a new MLA for Nilambur but may also redraw political alignments in Kerala. A win for Swaraj will solidify the LDF’s hold and a smooth ride to the upcoming local body elections as well as the Assembly elections. And a win would offer Swaraj a larger political role. A win for Shoukath could consolidate VD Satheeshan’s leadership in the Congress and keep the UDF-League alliance intact, and as many believe, a win for Shoukath would pave way for government change next year. If Anvar performs better than expected, he may establish himself as a third force in Kerala politics.
