Akhilesh Yadav's strong performance has also bolstered the Congress's results in the state.

The vote counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections is still ongoing, and current trends indicate a setback for the BJP-led NDA, which is hovering around the 300-seat mark, far below its ambitious “abki baar 400 paar” targets and the exit poll predictions. In contrast, the INDIA bloc has surprised many with its strong performance in several states, signalling a resurgence of regional parties.

Almost all exit polls miscalculated the numbers, although they did predict the general trend. The BJP and NDA appear unlikely to reach the 350 to 400-seat range. What stands out from these trends is the significant comeback and rise of regional parties across the country. From Maharashtra to Andhra Pradesh to Uttar Pradesh to West Bengal, regional parties are performing exceptionally well.

Uttar Pradesh could be the defining story of this Lok Sabha election. The Samajwadi Party (SP) and Congress are exceeding exit poll expectations. Akhilesh Yadav’s strong performance has also bolstered the Congress’s results in the state. The SP is leading in 35 of the 80 seats in the state. Its erstwhile ally, who crossed over to the BJP just before the elections, is leading in two.

Union Minister Smriti Irani, who famously defeated Rahul Gandhi in 2019, is trailing in the high-profile Amethi seat. The BJP is also trailing in Faizabad, indicating that the Ram temple issue is not yielding significant gains for the BJP in the state.

In Maharashtra, the contest is heating up. Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena (UBT) and Sharad Pawar’s NCP are outperforming expectations. The opposition coalition, including the Congress, is currently ahead of the BJP-led Mahayuti in the state. The breakaway factions of both Shiv Sena and NCP, which aligned with the BJP, have underperformed, dragging down the NDA’s numbers. While Uddhav Sena is leading in 11 seats, Pawar’s NCP is leading in six. The Eknath Shinde and Ajit Pawar camps are leading in five and one seats, respectively.

In Bihar, contrary to expectations, Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) is leading in as many seats as the BJP. While JDU is ahead in 14 seats, its ally BJP isn’t far behind with leads in 13 seats. Ram Vilas Paswan’s Lok Janshakti Party, which contested from six seats, is ahead in five of those. Lalu Yadav’s RJD, key member of the INDIA bloc, was expected to do better. But it is ahead in only three seats.

In West Bengal, Mamata Banerjee’s TMC is on track to improve its tally compared to the 2019 Lok Sabha polls. The party had won 22 seats in the last election, current trends suggest it’s leading in 32, while the BJP which secured 18 last time, is ahead in nine so far.

In Andhra Pradesh, Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP is poised to win the assembly elections and make significant gains in the Lok Sabha elections. It’s leading in 16 Lok Sabha seats, while Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP is showing leads only in four seats.

In Tamil Nadu, Stalin-led DMK is leading in 21 seats of the 39 seats.

Odisha is an exception, where the BJP is making gains at the expense of the BJD. It’s leading in 19 seats with Naveen Patnaik’s BJP ahead only in one.