In the history of Haryana, it is the first time a government has continued to its third term, with the BJP government securing a hattrick, defying the exit poll predictions that foresaw a comfortable win for the Congress party. As the counting for the 90-member assembly ended by Tuesday evening, the BJP emerged victorious, accumulating 48 seats while the Congress trailed behind with 37. The INLD received two, and the independents three.

The results have surprised many as it was opposite to what the exit polls, surveys, and political analysts suggested, noting the purported anti-incumbency due to the state government‘s suppression of farmers’ protests, wrestlers stirs, youth’s fury over schemes such as Agnipath, and unemployment.

Read Also: Congress Refuses To Accept Haryana Results, Declares War Against Election Commission: Explainer

Five Key Takeaways From The Result

1. Despite all the anti-incumbency sentiments, the BJP managed to secure about 40 percent of the vote share, which is notably above the percentage it got during the 2019 assembly elections, despite being in power for the last ten years. The grand old party has also jumped its vote share from 28 percent to 39 percent, presumably due to the dropped vote share from the parties such as JJP and INLD.
2. One of the key factors said to have contributed to the BJP’s victory is the caste politics in Haryana. The saffron party seemed to have consolidated the non-Jat votes from Punjabis, OBCs, Brahmins, Rajputs, Ahirs and other castes. While the appointment of Nayab Singh Saini secured OBC votes, the former chief minister Manohar Lal Khattar ascension helped the party consolidate the Punjabi Khatri votes, effectively mobilising non-Jat votes.
3. The other factors include the rift among the Congress’s top leaders, including between the party’s chief ministerial nominee and prominent Jat-face Bhupinder Singh Hooda and Kumari Selja. Selja had even distanced herself from the campaign for some time. After the polls result, the Sirsa MP called for serious introspection within the party. The split of Dalit votes is also believed to have played a role in the failure of the Congress party, as the coalitions including Dalit parties in combines like INLD-BSP and the JJP-Azad Samaj Party (Kanshi Ram) have secured significant vote share.
4. Another factor for the Congress setback is analysed to be the party’s overconfidence in returning to power in the state. The party had pinned its hope on the trend, which it believed would be in its favour, given the Lok Sabha election result in Haryana and predictions of the poll surveys.
5. The Congress rebels, last but not least, have also played a major role in damaging the prospects of the party. From dividing anti-incumbency votes to splitting Congress shares, the rebels helped the BJP secure at least ten seats. Many rebels, including the Chitra Sarwara, who contested as independent, came in second, securing 52,581 votes, while the Congress candidate could get just below 15,000 votes. If she could have contested on a Congress ticket, the party could have simply sailed through the seat. Similarly, rebels such as Gopal Chaudhary, Harsh Chhikara, and some other figures snatched Congress’ vote share, helping the BJP claim the seat. Moreover, the BJP also excelled in booth management with its solid organisational mechanism which led the Congress party alleging mal practices in counting process.

However, the Congress party has refused to accept the poll result, alleging EVM issues and manipulation. The party raised serious issues, questioning the integrity of the democratic process and noting that the result was against ground reality and poll predictions.

Read Also: Haryana Election Results Live Updates: BJP Set For Hattrick; Wins 48 Seats