The Final Picture: How Rajasthan Will Vote?
Since 1993, voters in Rajasthan have not given chances to either the BJP or Congress to rule the state consecutively. Rajasthan, consisting of 200 assembly constituencies, is going to witness a close battle between the ruling Congress party and the opposition BJP. On November 25, it will be decided whether the voters in the state kept trust in the outgoing Ashok Gehlot-led state government or in the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In Rajasthan, Congress is mainly dependent on the plans formulated by Ashok Gehlot, the senior member of the Indian National Congress (INC). The Congress leader has been in politics for the last five decades. Ashok Gehlot became the Rajasthan chief minister for the first time in 1998. His second term as chief minister began in 2008, and he ruled until 2013. In this assembly election, the 72-year-old Ashok Gehlot is making a solo fight as there is a severe internal conflict between him and the former Rajasthan Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot. However, on November 19, Sachin Pilot stated that the Congress party believes in collective leadership. The Congress leader also added that individual responsibilities in the state will be decided upon and allocated once Congress returns to power. The Congress party is making constant efforts to clear up the conflicts between Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot.
Ashok Gehlot is trying to regain power in Rajasthan with seven pre-poll promises he has announced. The seven “guarantees” (pre-poll promises) include cooking gas cylinders for Rs 500 to 1.05 crore families, laptops or tablets for students taking admission in government colleges, and an annual honorarium of ₹10,000 for the female head of the family. In the Congress manifesto, which was released on November 21, the party also promises a caste census in the state if it returns to power. Apart from this, Ashok Gehlot also promises a new panchayat-level recruitment scheme. With new welfare schemes, Ashok Gehlot is making an effort to create the image of a political leader who cares for the welfare of the people.
On the other hand, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is mainly depending on the popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi in the Rajasthan Assembly election. The BJP is also highlighting various developmental projects done by the central government. At the same time, the BJP also believes that the internal conflicts in the Congress party will be an advantage to the BJP. PM Modi has already participated in several election rallies in Rajasthan. Notably, PM Modi has visited poll-bound Rajasthan 11 times since January. While addressing a public meeting recently, PM Modi commented on the Gehlot-Pilot conflict and said that the leaders are only pretending to join hands for elections. The Prime Minister also added that there has been no reconciliation despite a hundred handshakes.
The BJP released its poll manifesto for the Rajasthan assembly elections on November 25. In the manifesto, the BJP promises a Rs 450 subsidy on LPG cylinders for Ujjawala beneficiaries and 2.5 lakh government jobs over the next five years. The saffron party also said that they will provide free scooters to meritorious students pursuing higher education. However, like Congress, the BJP is also facing conflicts within the party in Rajasthan. The BJP has not projected a chief ministerial face in the state. Vasundhara Raje, the former chief minister, has been sidelined by the BJP as part of establishing a new leadership in the state. The BJP is fielding seven MPs in the Rajasthan polls. This includes senior leader Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore. In an exclusive interview with India Today group, Rajyavardhan Singh Rathore said that if the party chooses him to be the chief minister in Rajasthan, then he will discharge the role with “courage”. Several other leadership contenders are also in the BJP.
According to a 2018 study, 55 percent of people in India would prefer a political leader from their own caste and religion. In this study, 62 percent of those surveyed in Rajasthan revealed a desire for a leader from the same caste. Caste politics is a deciding factor in the upcoming polls. Jats, Rajputs, Meenas, and Gujjars are the major castes in the state. The Jat community, which has a presence in almost 85 constituencies, had 42 MLAs across various parties in the previous election. There is fierce competition between the BJP and Congress for the Jat vote. Apart from these parties, Hanuman Beniwal and his Rashtriya Loktantrik Party (RLP) and the Jannayak Janata Party (JJP) are also making efforts for the Jat vote. OBC votes are also very important in Rajasthan. OBCs comprise almost 35–40 percent of the state population.
In 2013, when the BJP captured power in Rajasthan by winning 163 seats, they were able to get only 73 seats in 2018. On the other hand, the Congress won 100 seats in Rajasthan in 2018, and it was a significant victory as they got only 21 seats in 2013. Notably, in the past five years, Congress has also won five of the seven seats in assembly by-elections.
The pre-poll survey conducted by ABP News and CVoter indicated that the BJP may secure around 127 to 137 constituencies in Rajasthan in the upcoming elections, and the Congress may win between 59 to 69 seats. The majority mark to form the government in Rajasthan is 101. A total of 1,875 candidates are contesting the Rajasthan election. The state has 52,788,931 eligible voters, and it includes 2.2 lakh new voters. Women voters are also a deciding factor, as out of the total eligible voters, 25.3 lakh are women. The BJP has 20 women candidates, and the Congress has 28 in the election. While the Ashok Gehlot-led government is struggling to retain power, the BJP is highlighting PM Modi and the Centre”s welfare schemes to capture power in the desert state. The result of this mega-political showdown will be revealed on December 3.
